Robots will occupy your work before occupying the world

U.S. President-elect Trump tried to make the labor market look like a zero-sum game - U.S. companies will move their production lines to China and other emerging markets, and he will bring those outgoing jobs back home. Regardless of whether bringing back jobs to high-cost countries will stimulate the automation of the company's development, the more noteworthy issue here is that after replacing the U.S. manufacturing workers, robots are also preparing to do so in developing economies. It will be very difficult to resume work that has been replaced by robots in the future. The number of industrial robots in the world has only reached 1 million in 50 years, and according to Maccquarie, this number will increase by 1 million in the next 8 years. The most important thing is that most of the recent growth is outside the United States, especially in China where the population is gradually aging and wages are rising. Robot Kingdom China has more industrial robots than any other country in the world. Before occupying the world, robots will occupy your work first. From a certain perspective, it is only a good thing. After all, working on the production line is monotonous and dangerous. However, the establishment of large manufacturing industries has always been a traditional way for developing economies to improve people’s living standards. Robots and other types of automation have now become a threat to such development models. Last November, the United Nations warned that two-thirds of the work opportunities in developing countries are facing threats. No resistance Many jobs in developing countries can be completely replaced by automation. Before occupying the world, robots will occupy your job and even the first American advocates like Trump should also pay attention to this, because people who join the middle class in Vietnam, Mexico, or Egypt will become potential customers of U.S. cargo exporters. .
When the American middle class thrived after the Second World War, factory automation was expensive. Robots are limited to a few industries, mainly the automotive industry, and these robots are not that complicated. As productivity has been optimized to increase wages, robots have not made workers seem superfluous. Poor countries in Asia and Africa may not be so lucky. Today's robots are more advanced, can be deployed more widely in different industries, and are cheaper. This makes less room for wages to rise before humans leave the labor market, and lower-cost automation means that manufacturing can be moved back to developed economies. Last year, the German robot manufacturer kuka AG, which was acquired by China's Midea Group, estimated that the typical industrial robot costs about 5 euros per hour ($5.28). Manufacturers in Germany hire one person for 50 euros an hour, and in China about 10 euros an hour. This highlights a key point - companies can recoup their spending on automation equipment: According to Macquarie's report, the payback period for Chinese automotive welding robots has dropped to less than two years. Instead of looking for a cheaper source of labor elsewhere (another emerging Asian market), Chinese manufacturers are choosing to install more robots, especially for highly complex jobs. As Bernstein analysts recently said, China is not a job but a worker. This may be the reason why manufacturing employment has already peaked in many emerging economies. It occurs at a time when the overall employment rate is lower and economic development is earlier - this trend is called "premature deindustrialization." To be clear, this is not an argument against science and technology. Smartphones provide users with access to most of the world’s knowledge, and the increase in the number of mobile phones is a ticket to the service industry. However, service industries (such as Uber drivers)—whether the wages are reasonable or whether they are guaranteed like the production line—are open questions. These service industries will also be threatened by automation - driverless cars are a threat to taxi drivers. Good service competition between service industries will only become more intense and wages will remain unchanged. All in all, robotics may exacerbate inequality in low-income countries.
Even business leaders who benefit from greater automation and digitization are increasingly concerned about potential negative consequences. In Germany, the CEOs of Deutsche Telekom AG and Siemens AG have recently provided some form of basic income for those who are replaced by technology. Trump may not support this approach, but he still must face the consequences: a very small number of manufacturing companies will return to the United States and will not generate more job opportunities elsewhere.

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