2019年12月17日星期二

In half a dozen years, half of humanity's work will be replaced by robots (attached list)

In the 21st century battle between humans and computers for jobs, computers are moving toward victory, and there is little chance that humans will turn to win. As technology advances, jobs that people originally thought were not easy to automate, and the likelihood of falling out of them increased. In a January 2017 report, the McKinsey Global Institute estimated that half of humans’ current job responsibilities may be automated by 2055, starting at 2035 and ending at 2075 at the latest. The most important point is that robots will replace our work. No one will build a wall around them or impose high tariffs on them. To some extent, this is nothing new. Since the invention of the wheel, technology has been replacing human labor. Now the machine is gradually replacing low-skilled, low-paid, and highly-repetitive jobs. The least replaced jobs are those in the entertainment industry, therapists, members of the medical profession, social workers, teachers, and administrators. Because in terms of human interaction and customization decisions, computers do not seem to match humans. But this situation is changing. Due to the development of artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and the increasingly low cost of computing power, people once felt that some jobs that are not suitable for automation suddenly showed the prospect of automation. For example, 10 years ago, researchers once believed that the complexity of the task of getting around the obstacles and walking through the traffic was beyond the scope of the computer, but now almost all car manufacturers (and like Apple The company) seems to be developing driverless cars. What jobs may be replaced? In just a few years, the number of types of computer work that can be done has increased dramatically, some of them are expected, but others are beyond people’s imagination. Middle Manager Last month, the world's largest hedge fund announced that it was developing algorithms to automate management decision-making processes that included the hiring and firing of employees. Bridgewater Associates' Prios project is based on the philosophy of its founder and billionaire founder Ray Dalio, who hopes to launch the product within five years. Lawyer The next time you receive a violation ticket from the traffic police, you may be able to hire a robotic lawyer. DoNotPay has helped 16 million people in London, New York and Seattle fight this lawsuit, and its business will soon expand to San Francisco, Los Angeles, Denver and Chicago. You fill out a questionnaire. If the legal robot thinks you haven't violated the rules, it will send a letter to defend it. The company claims that its success rate of defense reached 60%. Reporters such as Narrative Science and Automated Insights have created AI robots that have written business and sports reports for clients such as Forbes and the Associated Press. Narrative Science co-founder Kris Hammond predicted in an interview with The Guardian in June 2015 that by 2030, 90% of the news will be written by computers, and some diligent robots can even Before that, he won the Pulitzer Prize. Therapists There have been companies that have started using “social robots” to help children with autism learn appropriate social behavior. Therapeutic robot pets can accompany older people with dementia. The U.S. military is using computer-generated virtual therapists to screen soldiers with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Afghanistan. Teachers Using software such as McGraw-Hill Connect and Aplia, the university teaches coursework that can manage hundreds of students at a time. Mooc online courses can also give thousands of students classes at the same time. Japan and South Korea are using physical robots to teach students to learn English. The actor Peter Cushing, who died in 1994, once again played his old role in the 2016 “Star Wars, Grand Theft Auto”, thanks to the magic of Industrial Light and Magic. But he is not the first dead actor to appear in a new movie. Paul Walker, Audrey Hepburn, Sir Lawrence Olivier, Bruce Lee, and Marlon Brando have also "digitally resurrected" in new films and advertisements. Cookbook author In January 2015, IBM's computer Watson created a cookbook. It contains 65 recipes, such as how to make "Creole shrimp lamb" dumplings, brewing "hoof honey" beer and so on. Deliverer The Aloft Hotel is testing a robot steward named “Botlr,” letting it send towels or toiletries to the guest’s room (it won’t tip you, but will encourage you to send tweets). Starship's delivery robot looks like an enhanced sweeping robot, but it can send food and parcels to nearby locations. DoorDash and Postmates have announced cooperation with Starship Technologies. In December last year, Amazon used drones to deliver the first package to customers. Amazon Prime Air promised to deliver packages weighing no more than 5 pounds in 30 minutes or less. It is no secret that drivers Uber and Lyft want to replace thousands of amateur taxi drivers with robots—although early tests faced regulatory and security obstacles. Taxi and city buses may be the first vehicles to get automated, and the time may be in the early 2020s. In the field of literature and art creation, humans still have the upper hand. In 2013, a vocational digitization study at Oxford University once pointed out that jobs that are least likely to be replaced by computers are those that have the highest demand for social and creative intelligence. But even in these areas, the prospect of digital has emerged. For many years, computers have been creating art, music, and literature—although their works are not very good. Robotic poetry and computer-generated music have formed their own schools, but they have not caused much impact on the prospects for the work of human poets and musicians. In February of last year, the first musical series "Beyond the Fence" was created in London, but the evaluation was not very high. Despite this, algorithms and artists still have a certain degree of competition. In the 2016 RobotArt Competition, the champion was won by TAIDA, a university in Taiwan, and its creation of pointillism style works looks like a model. Last April, the computer-written novel "The Day of Computer Fiction" was shortlisted for the Nikkei Hoshi Shinichi Literary Award. The judges did not know that this book was written by AI. The music synthesis software Kunitta written by Yale Computer Science lecturer Donya Quick has fooled some “professionals,” and they mistakenly thought that the music created by this software was the work of John Sebastian Bach. But for now, humanity will continue to have the upper hand in the creative field. “Work that requires a lot of creativity may still be safe for a long time. Some people try to write scripts and TV shows on computers. Until now, they have written badly.” “Only humans need to apply: "Tom Davenport, co-author of only Humans Need Apply: Winners and Losers in the Age of Smart Machines," said Tom Davenport. How to coexist with a computer in the workplace? There are some signs that people feel more optimistic. Most high-skilled workers may work with computers instead of being replaced by computers. McKinsey estimates that 60% of current work is more or less automated. This has already happened in the fields of medicine, law and banking. For example, IBM's Watson can help doctors diagnose patient conditions and analyze MRI images. Electronic discovery platforms like eDiscovery and Kroll Ontrack can help lawyers screen out thousands of documents in a matter of hours. Future AI-driven services such as FutureAdvisor or Wealthfront can help customers make investment decisions so that financial advisors can free up time to work for high-net-worth customers. Davenport said that in the robot-dominated workplace, there are five ways humans can coexist with them. You can move up the weaving chain to become the supervisor of the computer, or make high-level decision makers, and decide which tasks to computerize. You can also focus on what your computer isn't good at work, or find new jobs that your computer may not be good at. The last method is that you become the developer of automation technology. Michael Jones, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Cincinnati, believes that the problem of work being taken away by computers can be solved through education and training – although it is not yet clear what training workers should receive. No one knows what a job will be like in 10 or 20 years, just as nobody in the 1990s could predict that there would be a job like a drone repair mechanic. Jones said: "Automation will not only benefit the entire community, but it will also benefit individual workers if they can adjust their skills and use new technologies to improve their work. But these people can master the new The skills? Even if they can, are they willing?” Jones said that traditional jobs may not be affected as much by plumbers, electricians, and carpenters. Forrester's vice president and principal analyst, JP Gownder, said that although job opportunities will be reduced in areas where automation is easier to achieve, they may not completely disappear. "I believe human labor will be valued and it may become a luxury product," he said. “Imagine that after 15 or 20 years, most people will go and find robots to manicure their own. But the rich may still want real people to manicure their own.” If you happen to be the number of work snatched by the algorithm One of the million unemployed soldiers who wants to find a job, then recruiting robots (like Entelo or Gild) may help you find a new job.

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