2020年3月22日星期日

A hot wind of capital screams through the dark clouds of drones or will burst?

From 2016 to the present, the unmanned aerial vehicle industry encountered unprecedented difficulties along with the cold weather of capital, and drone companies have fallen into the storm of layoffs. After the frustration of the consumer market, many drone companies switched to open up the industry-level market. On January 12, the user of the drone star company Lily did not wait for the notification of product shipment. Instead, he received an e-mail with the subject “The end of the journey”. The e-mail mentioned that the company would be closed and at 60. Days to return to crowdfunding. Just a year ago, Lily had just won the CES “Most Innovative Product Award” from the United States. On January 9th, Parrot, the world's top three drone maker, announced that it will cut 1/3 of the drone project's employees. Domestic zero-scale intelligence control has announced the layoff of 134 employees at the end of 2016, accounting for about 25% of the total number of employees. Another manufacturer, Yihang, has laid off about 70 people, accounting for about 20% of the total number of employees. The U.S. drone's boss, 3D Robotics, has withdrawn from the UAV hardware market. From 2016 to the present, the unmanned aerial vehicle industry encountered unprecedented difficulties along with the cold weather of capital, and drone companies have fallen into the storm of layoffs. Chris Anderson, co-founder and CEO of 3D Robotics, told the media: “In addition to Dajiang, everyone is a loser.” The black technology aura broke out In May 2015, a drone called Lily suddenly became a global technology circle. famous. The company released a video showing that a drone was thrown directly into the water from the shore and it took off within three seconds. The UAV can also achieve palm landing, follow-up shooting, waved pictures, automatic obstacle avoidance and other black technologies. The Lily drone declared to the industry that Lily drones can automatically follow the shot and act as a “selfie stick” for the user to move whenever the user is walking, running or skiing. This idea shocked the drone market at that time. At that time, the Dajiang drone had just released the Wizard 3. Its biggest bright spot was only 4K video, and its premium version costs about 999 US dollars. The Lily drone's pre-sale price is only 499 US dollars (and then rose to 800 US dollars). By the end of 2015, Lily had more than 60,000 pre-sale orders and received pre-sale revenue of US$34 million. At the Consumer Electronics Show CES in January 2016, Lily won the most innovative product award and was named by the Wall Street Journal as the most anticipated consumer electronics product of the year. However, on January 12, 2017, Lily suddenly sent an e-mail to users involved in pre-sales: Lily announced that it had failed due to a shortage of funds that could not complete the manufacture and delivery of drones. From the time it was born to the failure of the announcement, Lily's users did not receive an officially commercial drone. Lily drones occurred in December 2015, February 2016 and August 2016 respectively. The reason for the three bounties is that it is difficult to achieve the black technology of video propaganda, or it can be achieved but the effect is not good. In December 2015, when Lily skipped the ticket for the first time, he reported that its biggest highlight was "tossing fly". Some media claimed that its test flight Lily drone failed to "fly". In February 2016, Lily jumped for the second time for no apparent reason. It was reported that the image was unstable when the trial machine followed. By April 2016, Dajiang had released Elf4 and implemented Lily's previously claimed automatic obstacle avoidance function. In August 2016, Lily skipped the ticket for the third time. A Lily internal employee told the media that the reason was simple. In order to achieve the black technology promoted in the video, the company consumed a lot of money, and in the end there was no money. DJI's competition is everywhere. Similar to Lily's situation, in the summer of 2016, GoPro's drones had to declare a recall due to a power outage. The industry giant 3D Robotics' consumer-grade UAV flagship product has been aborted and it has announced its withdrawal from the drone hardware market, shifting its business focus to enterprise applications. At the end of 2016, domestic unmanned aerial vehicles, such as Zero Depth and Billion Airlines, announced layoffs. On January 9, 2017, Parrot, the world’s top three French electronics company, also announced a one-third reduction in the drone division. Among them, 3D Robotics was once the biggest rival of DJI in North America. That year, they produced Solo with GoPro cameras and GoPro cameras for more than $1,700, and the comparable Dajiang Wizard 3 Professional package priced at just $1,300. By 2016, the price of the Elven drone with universal joints and cameras dropped to 1,000 US dollars. DJI, which has the advantage of a supply chain, almost put 3D Robotics to a dead end on the price. Chris Anderson told the media, “I have never seen any market that has seen such a price cut.” Announced layoffs of Parrot in its 2016 The fourth quarter financial report mentioned that the sales of 90 million U.S. dollars were lower than the previous goal of 106 million U.S. dollars. At the same time, they faced the strong impact of the drones of consumerism in Xinjiang, and they needed to seek new directions for development. An industry source told reporters that many people think that Chinese companies do drones. In fact, there is only one cow in DJI. It can cover a lot of needs, consumer-grade, aerial photography and so on. According to the "China Consumer UAV Industry Depth Survey and Investment Prospects Forecast Report 2016-2020" issued by China Investment Advisors, Dajiang accounts for more than 95% of Shenzhen Customs' unmanned aerial vehicle exports. At the end of 2016, Da Jiang announced that it expects annual sales to exceed 10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and accounted for more than 70% of the consumer drone market. An industry insider analyzed the strategy of Dajiang’s strategy to the reporter. Its products have both aggressive and defensive behavior. “You fight with me directly, I can't fight me, but on the other hand I’m doing something else. The vendor was preparing for differentiation with me. Dajiang’s Mavic came out and killed Dobby for zero, and DJI had already thought of the pain point of zero for playing portability." Capital-experienced companies have risks due to the drone market. Hot, from 2015 to 2016, a large number of VCs spawned many drone entrepreneurs. Chuang Yuan Investment CEO Wang Xiao told the media that a successful consumer-level drone company needs perfect machine vision and image capture software technology, perfect drone balance and control technology, perfect waterproof process, industrial design, supply Chain management, mass production control and a lot of capital support. Many start-ups underestimated the time and money needed to improve the technology, which led to delayed shipments in the UAV industry is a very common phenomenon. Insiders told reporters that drone companies often sign gambling agreements when they accept investments. The two sides will agree on product delivery dates. VC hopes to deliver goods in advance, see market response as soon as possible, and see earnings earlier. In order to obtain financing, many companies can only compromise and accept the agreement. They may try to force R&D and the progress may be completed. In fact, drones are very complex products. Some companies are forced to put products that are not very mature into the market, and the feedback they get can be imagined. The person also stated that he does not think that it is a good thing to be chased by capital. “A lot of times, it is upsetting the rhythm. The original rational and scientific research and development progress will be disrupted and problems will arise.” This problem exists. Certain commonalities. Zhang Yang joined Judi in 2015 as the technical director and sales manager. Before that, he has been engaged in the surveying and mapping industry. In his view, "The domestic drone circle is extremely small, and two people will surely find a third person, no matter who he is, as long as he is in this circle. I estimate that this market does not have a mass of ten million people. There are fewer professional grades, and each city is also a group.” After turning to the industry-level market consumer-level market frustration, many drone companies turned to open up the industry-level market. The demand for drones has emerged in industries such as agriculture, security, power, surveying, film and television, and logistics. Parrot said that it will start with the industry's advantages to the industry, including mapping, monitoring, agriculture and power lines. Not long ago, Zhang Yang began to contact forestry customers. The PPT he showed to reporters contained the needs of many forestry customers. As the research deepens, Zhang Yang realizes that in addition to the surveying and mapping industry in which he used to exist, other apparently painful requirements are often pseudo-demands or supplementary demands. “For example, if forestry has fire protection requirements, rotary-wing industrial-grade drones can fly for 40 minutes, and the speed is 15 meters/s. How far can it fly, and how large is the area of ​​a forest area? If the rotors are combined with fixed wings, the flight duration will change. Long, but the cost will go up, the forestry budget is generally not high, while the aircraft can not use oil, in case of falling will trigger a fire, can only use electric, electric means short flight time, it fell into a vicious From the point of view of the recent drone's publicity, more and more companies have begun to emphasize that they are not drone companies but robot companies that are consciously moving closer to artificial intelligence. For drone manufacturers, they need to tell a bigger story to get financing.

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